Political Science 308, United States Presidency

Summer 2021

Bill Newmann

Office Hours: I am not having regular office hours. Please email me or talk to me in class and we can set something up.

E-mail: wnewmann@vcu.edu;

Newmann's home page with links to other course syllabi (http://www.people.vcu.edu/~wnewmann)

Links to the Presidency that will be useful or interesting (some might even be both).

Polls and Sites with Electoral College Charts

· Gallup Poll

· Quinnipiac Poll

· Real Clear Politics Poll tracking

· Pew Center

· Washington Post polling page

· New York Times polling page

· Wall Street Journal/NBC news polls

· CBS News polling page

· 538.Com polling

· CNN polling page

· Fox News polling page

· Polling Report.Com

The American National Election Studies (ANES) is a scholarly database with everything. You need to register to use it (just info; no cost), and then create a password. There is a ton here, so it may require some playing around to find what you’re looking for.

Use These for References to Voting in this election and past elections

· 270 to Win (info on presidential elections)

· Dave Leip’s Atlas of US Presidential Elections The best info on every US presidential election and more

Sites with Coverage from All Perspectives

· Real Clear Politics links to articles from everywhere

· Politico comprehensive coverage of political events

Possibly the two most important sites that exist (These examine claims made by politicians, candidates, and pundits. Are they true or are they half-truths, or are they complete lies? It also checks media stories and official pronouncements of the president and congress)

· Fact Check.Org From the Annenberg Center at the University of Pennsylvania

· PolitiFact.com From several newspapers

· The Fact Checker From the Washington Post

· Snopes.com (fact checking and debunking urban legends and internet hoaxes that are often about politics)

Reference

· Presidential Libraries

· Statistical Abstract of the United States (US Census Bureau compilation of statistics on social and economic conditions in the US)

· Charts on Presidential Approval Ratings (from Wall Street Journal; composites of several polling organizations)

Introduction

The presidency is a huge topic. Recognizing this, the course will take a sweeping look at the US Presidency, arguably the single most powerful office in the history of the planet. Getting a handle on the presidency is a difficult, if not impossible job. Probably the best way to start learning about the subject is to think of the US presidency as the nexus of three streams: (1) the times -- the ebb and flow of American political culture, national trends, and international historical forces; (2) the presidency -- the office and powers of the institution as it has evolved from the US Constitution to the media-focused, celebrity Presidency of the 1980s and 1990s; and (3) The president -- the character, vision, strengths and weaknesses of the man or woman who occupies the Oval Office. As these three streams come together the political history of the nation is shaped. The US has been called a "Presidential Nation." It is in the office of the presidency where the US people have decided to place power time and again. In the historical grappling for power between the president and Congress the US people have continually sided with the president. It is the place where we look for leadership, and direction. The person who occupies that office is given a stature like no other. (Has anyone seen any monuments to senators or representatives?) The president gets too much credit when things go well and too much blame when things go wrong. For better or worse, the president has become the embodiment of the nation, and therefore, his or her character, personal habits and infirmities become the stuff of national obsession, and national security. (During the 1980s, the polyps on Ronald Reagan's colon received more media attention than the workings of the Federal Reserve.)

The office of the president is the repository of the greatest powers in the land, not just in terms of physical power (the authority to use military force, even nuclear weapons), but moral power -- the ability to shift the ethical standards of a nation and to influence, if not define, the national mood. Our presidential elections often focus on issues of personal character, not issues of economic, social or foreign policy. We seem to be choosing not simply someone to run the country, but someone to represent us -- half-prime minister, half-monarch. Our choices see to depend on the national mood.

One of the key issues in the study of the presidency focuses on what really accounts for presidential decisions. Those who have an institutional perspective believe that the president is no match for the political pressures of congress, the political environment, and the American people. He responds to them in ways that try to preserve his power by using his own institutional powers. Every president will react roughly the same to the same institutional forces. The other perspective, often called the persuasion or bargaining model, sees leadership of the president as the key determinant of decisions. The president matters -- his character, his leadership style, and his political skills.

This is the central point we should focus on: Is it possible for a president to "succeed" in "modern" times? What do I mean by "succeed?" It is best to take ideological judgments out of the definition of success. We should not try to define success subjectively -- in terms of individual political goals that those on one side or the other of the political spectrum might have, such as reducing poverty through government action or shrinking the size of the welfare state. Using these notions as the judgment of success would lead to endless debate about the purposes of government from a partisan point of view. We’ll probably have a little bit of that, but we don't want it to dominate the course. It is better to try for some scholarly objectivity, by defining success in the following manner -- did the president achieve what he set out to do? Whether you, as an individual, shared the goals of one president or another, is irrelevant to this question. Analytically, the focus should be upon how successful was any president in attaining the goals that he sets for himself.

By the "modern" presidency I refer to the presidency as it has been defined since Franklin Roosevelt. It is FDR who, with the help of national crises of the Depression and WW II, transformed the presidency into the focus of power that it is today. He also raised expectations so high that it is doubtful that any president can meet those expectations for any length of time. Can the job be done? That is what we will focus on during the course of the semester. We will examine the powers of the presidency, the men who have held the office and the shifting demands that our political culture places on both the office and the individual.

We, of course, will look at how the last few presidencies operated (Bush 43, Obama, and Trump) and we’ll also spend a lot of time examining how President Trump seems to be shattering some of the established norms of the presidency.

Some of the issues we will discuss include: The Presidency and the Constitution; Presidential Character; The Roosevelt Revolution; "The Personal Presidency;" Presidential Management Styles; Bureaucracy, Organizations, and Presidential Power; The "Imperial Presidency" and Foreign Policy; The White House Staff and its power; Watergate and the abuse of power; The post-Watergate Presidency; The Reagan Revolution; The President and the media; Presidential Campaigns; Expectations of the President; Image making; Shifting Coalitions in Presidential Voting; Red and Blue America; the Trump Phenomenon; and the Collapse of American Democracy?

We will also spend some time looking at the current crisis in American Democracy. In the long run, presidential power has been expanding in ways that are often seen as detrimental to the checks and balances built into the system. In essence, some think we are evolving into a system where congressional oversight disappears and presidential authority is unchallenged. In the shorter run, President Trump has challenged or obliterated long standing norms in American politics, both in terms of the tone of presidential communication and the limits to presidential power. As he has repeatedly said: Article 2 allows him to do whatever he wants, and gives him “total authority.” That is terrifying. The fundamental nature of democracy rejects total authority by anyone at any time. Only dictators or monarchs have total authority. Our extreme polarization has led us to a critical juncture. If we evolve into a system where parties believe that presidents from their own party can have absolute power, while presidents of the opposition party can have no power, we are no longer a functioning democracy. I can’t emphasize enough the crisis we are facing. A majority of the members of the current Republican Party believe that the 2020 election was stolen by the Democratic Party and that Biden is not legally president. This is absolutely 100% false, but they still believe it. The certification by congress of the 2020 election was disrupted by a violent riot, during which protestors attacked and invaded the Capitol Building in search of members of congress they verbally threatened to kill. Read that sentence again, and think about that. The refusal to accept the outcome of an election and an armed attempt to stop the transfer of power are two of the hallmarks of the death of the democratic process in a country. Our continued ability to hold elections and transfer power peacefully is at risk. By the end of the semester you’ll know multiple perspectives on how we got to this unstable era in American history.

Texts: You need to read them; you don't need to buy them. There is a lot of reading for this course, but it is fun reading. I've tried to keep the dry political science textbook style to a minimum. I've assigned mostly journalistic accounts that are entertaining and educational. The books are available at the Virginia Book Company, BookHolders, and the VCU Bookstore. Some of them may be found also at the large chain bookstores in town (Amazon, Barnes and Noble). You might find them there at a discount. If anyone has problems getting access to the texts, for any reason, let me know as soon as possible so you don't get too far behind in the reading. You may find these texts other places; be sure you get an edition of the text that includes everything that is in the edition I have assigned. I usually place the books on reserve, but that is not an option this semester.

Assigned Texts:

· Jeremi Suri. The Impossible Presidency (New York: Basic Books, 2017)

· Doris Kearns Goodwin. Leadership In Turbulent Times (New York: Simon and Shuster, 2019)

· Chris Whipple. The Gatekeepers: How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency (New York: Broadway Books, 2018)

· Ronald Brownstein. The Second Civil War (New York: Penguin Books, 2007)

· Charlie Sykes. How the Right Lost Its Mind (New York: St. Martin’s Griffin, 2018)

Grading System: Grades will be determined through the following:

Exam One	Take home exam: Exam will be given to you Tuesday, July 6 and will be due back to me Thursday, July 8 at midnight, as July 8 becomes July 9.	30% of the grade
Research Paper	Due July 27 Optional rough drafts can be submitted up until July 20	35% of the grade
Exam Two	Take home exam: Exam will be given to you Tuesday, August 3 and will be due back to me Thursday, August 5 at midnight, as August 5 becomes August 6.	35% of the grade

How do you calculate your grade? Use the percentages from the above table. So, if you received the following grades, you would calculate your grades in the following manner:

• Exam One: 92, at 30% of the grade; that’s 92 multiplied by .30 = 27.6
• Research Paper: 89, at 35% of the grade; that’s 89 multiplied by .35 = 31.15
• Exam Two: 90, at 35% of the grade; that’s 90 multiplied by .35 = 31.5
• To get the final grade, add up all the scores: 27.6 + 31.15 + 31.5 = 90.6. Congratulations you got an A.

I give you this very detailed formula for a number of reasons. You should never be unaware of what your class average is. You can calculate it at any point in the semester. If your grade is not what you'd like it to be, you should know, and you should come see me about it. Please don’t wait to come to my office hours until after the final exam and say then tell me that you're having trouble in the class. It's too late at that point; there’s nothing that I’d be able to do to help at that point. But any time in the semester that you feel you are having trouble, or not doing as well as you feel you should, come talk to me. During my office hours and by appointment I am happy to talk to you about the class

Grading scale: I use a typical scale: A = 90-100; B = 80-89; C = 70-79; D = 55-69. Borderline grades are considered in the following manner.

· If your grade is 69.5, 79.5, or 89.5 or higher, then you may be a candidate for a round up to the higher grade (Notice those numbers in the sentence; do not ask for a higher grade if your average is a 68 or 78 or 88 or lower; those are not borderline averages).

· You may become a candidate if your grades are borderline and if your grades have been going up during the semester.

· That means that if you are borderline, but your last exam is lower than the previous exams (you are between a B and C, but your third exam is a C for example), you will probably get the lower grade.

· If you are borderline, and your last exam is higher than the previous exams (you are between a B and C, but your third exam is a B), you will probably get the higher grade.

· Another factor I consider is the typical grade you receive. Let’s say we have three grades for the class and two are grades of B and one is a C (bad day) and your average is a 79.6, you are a candidate for receiving a B. If you have three grades and two grades are grades of C and one is a grade of B, you are probably not candidate for a round up to the next grade.

· There is no extra credit for this class. Please do not ask.

One more thing: The withdrawal date is July 13th.

EXAMS: Since this is a class that can be taken as an online class, exams will be different from my usual format. Here’s how it will work. Before exams I will schedule a zoom session (attendance option) for anyone who wants to ask questions or talk about the exam.

Basic Stuff

· It will be a take home obviously

• I will post the take home exam in the Files folder at about 9:00 AM two days before the exam is due. So, let’s say the exam is on Thursday, then I will give you the exam Tuesday morning. That gives you about three days to work on the exam because…
• It will be due by midnight on that Thursday (as Thursday becomes Friday, but that deadline is a soft one; don't sweat an extra few hours or so).
• If that schedule is a problem for you given your schedule, let me know and I will see what might be appropriate.
• A week before the exam, I will place a review sheet online, linked to the syllabus, which is an outline of my lectures and important information from the books. Use that as your study guide for the exams.
• It will be open notes (so you can use your notes, the books, the review sheet, and the PPT slides)
• You will not need to do any outside research for the exam. It will all be based on class lectures and class readings.
• If you had problems getting the books don't worry.  Talk to me. Given that I can’t put the books on reserve for you, the exams stress the lectures.
• The exam will consist of short answers and an essay.
• Sounds scary. It's not.  The exam is designed to be just a little bit bigger than an in-class exam.  I think that works since it is open notes and you have about three days.
• I think two to three hours will be enough time for you to actually write the exam and do well. Of course, you can take more time, but my point is that I don’t think you need it. Of course, you should study for this exam the way you would for an in-class exam.
• I do not expect or want you to spend three days working on this. 
• It might be helpful to read the questions, then review your notes, and the review sheets.  Maybe make an outline of the essay. And then start to write.
• As always, the review sheets should be very helpful. You can use the review sheet while you take the exam. It might be a good organization tool.  (The guy keeps mentioning the review sheets. Maybe it’s important.)
• Feel free to email me questions while you're taking the exam, but I can't give you answers.

Other details:

• Typing it will be easiest for everyone. If you would rather write it out, okay. Either way, email a file or pdf or even jpeg of the written answers by the deadline

· 11- or 12-point font

· One-inch margins

· Double-spaced

 And, important:

· Sharing this exam with anyone outside the class is a violation of the VCU Honor Code

· Working with another student in the class or anyone else while you take this exam is a violation of the VCU Honor Code

· As with any take home, the plagiarism rules that exist for research papers apply here.  Your exams must be your written work. I will run this through the standard plagiarism programs as I do with all research papers. 

Review One

Review Two

Research Paper: The full assignment is in the Files folder or linked right here. The topic is an assigned topic, but you have lots of leeway about how you want to approach it. Your assignment should be fin or scary: Explain the Trump phenomenon: How has Donald Trump captured the loyalty of the Republican Party in ways that no American politician ever has. Some basics:

• 8-10 pages; more is fine; less is not helpful for your grade.
• Due at midnight on July 27, as July 27 becomes July 28 (but again a soft deadline. I will not begin grading them at midnight).
• You may turn in an outline, rough draft, partial paper, whatever, for review up until one week before the paper is due (July 20). This is optional, just something to help you out if you have questions.

• Typed
• 11 or 12 point font
• Double spaced
• One inch margins
• Late Papers: Problems, Crises, Stress of a global pandemic: We are in uncharted territory right now. The world hasn’t seen anything like this for 100 years. I used to teach emergency management and my wife studies public health, so I am well aware of what this pandemic is doing to everyone. Talk to me if you are having some family or personal problems or any difficulty with any of the assignments. The point of this class is for you to learn about the US presidency, and in this crisis, that means giving everyone a lot of wiggle room. So, if you’re having any problems, talk to me. We can work it out. I do realize that there are more important things in life than this class and these assignments.

COURSE AND READING SCHEDULE

This class is designed to be taught in class and online. I will be lecturing from a classroom, streaming it live, and recording the lectures for people who cannot watch them live. You have a lot of leeway for how you want to schedule your time and how you watch my lectures (live or binging me as if this were Netflix). You will still need to keep up with the schedule of readings and assignments as listed below. Of course, if there are any crises or health/personal problems in your life, talk to me.

The following are some fun or useful PPT slideshows. Take a look if you’re interested. They are not required; none of the material will be on a test.

President’s Park PPT

Being a Good Political Consumer

Presidential Library Tour

Day 1: June 15: Introduction

(No Readings)

Introduction PPT

Recorded Lecture June 15: Introduction to Class and Presidency

Day 2: June 17: Origins of the Presidency

Suri, Introduction and Chapters 1-2

Read the Constitution

· Official US Government Printing Office version

· National Archives original text annotated version (with links to changes in the constitution)

Recorded Lecture June 17: The Executive in the Constitution

Day 3: June 22: The Pre-Modern Presidency

Suri, Chapter 3

Goodwin, Chapters 1 and 5 and 9

Pre-Modern Presidents PPT

Recorded Lecture June 22: The Pre-Modern Presidency

Day 4: June 24 The Modern Presidency Begins

Goodwin, Chapters 2, 6, and 10

FDR PPT

Recorded Lecture June 24: FDR

Day 5: June 29: The Roosevelt Legacy: and How Truman, Ike, and JFK Followed Precedent Part One

Goodwin, Chapters 3, 7, and 11

Leadership, Management, Advising PPT

Recorded Lecture June 29: FDR and Truman

Day 6: July 1: The Roosevelt Legacy: and How Truman, Ike, and JFK Followed Precedent Part Two

Goodwin, Chapters 4, 8, and 12

Recorded Lecture July 1: Ike and JFK Part One (Before the power went out)

Recorded Lecture July 1: Ike and JFK Part Two (After the power went out)

Day 7: July 6: LBJ and the Power of Persuasion

You will get Exam One at about 9 AM on July 6

LBJ PPT

No readings; finish up LBJ readings from last week

Recorded Lecture July 6: LBJ

Day 8: July 8:

Exam One due at midnight

No readings

No Class

Withdrawal Date July 13 (I will have your Exam One grades back before this date)

Day 9: July 13: Nixon’s Rise and Fall (Watergate is here)

Brownstein, Chapter 1 and Chapter 4 pages 93-127

Whipple, Introduction, Chapter 1

Nixon PPT

Watergate PPT

Scandals Comparison

Recorded Lecture July 13: Nixon

Day 10: July 15: The Post-Watergate Presidency and Reagan Realignment

Whipple, Chapters 2 and 4

Brownstein, Chapter 4 pages 127-136.

Suri, Chapter 8

Carter PPT

Reagan PPT

Recorded Lecture July 15: Ford and Carter

Day 11: July 20: The 1990s: Bush 41 and Clinton

Last Day for Turning in optional rough drafts July 20

Brownstein, Chapter 6

Whipple, Chapters 5 and 6

Bush 41

Clinton

Recorded Lecture July 20: Reagan

Day 12: July 22: Bush 43, and Polarization

Brownstein, Chapters 6-8 (pages 175-297)

Bush 43

Recorded Lecture July 22: Bush 41 and Clinton

Day 13: July 27: Bush 43, Obama, and Presidential Power

Paper Due July 27 at midnight (as July 27 becomes July 28)

Sykes, Introduction, Chapters 1-8

Obama

Recorded Lecture July 27: Clinton and Bush 43

Day 14: July 29: The Trump Presidency I

Sykes, Chapters 9-10

Trump One PPT

Trump Two PPT

Recorded Lecture July 29 Obama and Trump

Day 15: August 3: The Trump Presidency II

You’ll get the exam on August 3 at about 9:00 AM

Sykes, Chapters 11-17

Recorded Lecture August 3 Trump

Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report on Impeachment Process (Online)

Politifact Timeline of Impeachment Investigation

Articles of Impeachment against President Trump

Day 16: August 5:

Exam 2: Due at midnight (as August 5 becomes August 6)