POLI 308 US Presidency

Summer 2021

Review Two

This is a take home exam.

Basic Requirements

· August 3-5: I will place the exam in the Files folder of Canvas at about 9:00 AM on Tuesday August 3. It will be due back to me (emailed) by midnight on Thursday August 5 (as August 5 becomes August 6). That is a soft deadline, so don’t sweat a few hours, even until morning.

• Type or write the exam. 
• Either way, email me a file or pdf or even jpeg of the written answers by the deadline
• 11- or 12-point font
• One-inch margins
• Double-spaced
• Please use your name is the name of the file you send me.  I’d be happiest if you named the file like this: Your name Exam 1 POLI 308 (so if it was my exam, it would be Newmann Exam 1 POLI 308)
• The exam is open notes (so you can use your notes, the assigned books, the review sheet, and the PPT slides)
• I do not expect any outside research on this at all
• Each question has a specific page number target.  You can go over the limit, not a problem, but don’t go too far over the limit. You don’t need to.
• I think three hours will be enough time for you to write the exam and do well. You can take more time of course, as much as you need. The point here is that I don't think you need to spend hours and hours.
• It might be helpful to read the questions, then review your notes, and the review sheet.  Maybe make an outline of the essay. And then start to write.
• As always, the review sheets should be very helpful. You can use the review sheets while you take the exam. It might be a good organizational tool. 
• The PPT slides are also useful. They are my way of organizing the material, and they can serve that purpose for you too.

· Feel free to email me questions if you have them, but as usual, there are limits to how I can help you

The exam has two parts:

• Part 1: Short Answers: Choose 2 of 8: (20 points each; roughly one half of a page): Define the term and tell me why it’s important in the context of US foreign policy.
• Part 2: Essay: Choose 1 of 2: (60 points; roughly 3-4 pages). Each essay has several parts to it. Make sure to do all parts of the essay. There are choices even within the essay, so make sure you read the directions. A part of an essay may say “choose 3 of 5.” Don’t do all five.

And, important:

· Sharing this exam with anyone outside the class is a violation of the VCU Honor Code

· Working with another student in the class or anyone else while you take this exam is a violation of the VCU Honor Code

· As with any take home, the plagiarism rules that exist for research papers apply here. Your exams must be your written work. I will run this through the standard plagiarism programs as I do with all research papers.

This review looks big, but don't worry. If you have come to class and done all the reading, nothing here should be new to you. Also, though there are a lot of terms, obviously, not each one of them is the subject of an essay. These terms, in order, form an outline of everything we've done so far. A group of them might be the subject of an essay. Usually, you can't explain a single term without referring to the terms next to it. So, really, if you can say one or two things about each term and how it relates to the terms around it and fits into the larger scheme of nuclear weapons you're doing fine. Some terms, however, are filled with enough significance to be short answers/identifications on the test, but you'll be able to figure out which ones.

Terms with (*) in front of them may not have been included in the lectures, but were discussed, at length, in the readings.

Nixon

*Electoral Realignment

Democrats loss of the South

Southern voting patterns; the shift in 1964

Impact of 1950s and 1960s changes on New Deal Coalition

Civil Rights -- successes and failures

Expansion of federal power -- Civil Rights and Great Society

Failure in Vietnam

Division in Democratic Party Over Civil Rights

Losing the South

Labor and urban North

LBJ's challengers in the 1968 election

Eugene McCarthy

Robert Kennedy

Humber Humphrey

Nixon's coalition

The Silent Majority/Quiet Americans

Southern Strategy

George Wallace

The Southern Presidential vote in 1968 and 1972 vs. previous years

The Administrative Presidency under Nixon

White House control/management of the government

Domestic Council

John Ehrlichman

National Security Council staff

Henry Kissinger

*Chief of Staff H. R. Haldeman

*“Berlin Wall”

*Haldeman as gatekeeper: the bad cop

*Nixon difficulty in dealing with conflict; did not want to meet face-to-face with cabinet

*On not doing what the president tells you to do, sometimes…

Problems with the Administrative Presidency

*1. Cabinet Government?

Rogers and Romney examples

*2. Isolation

Line vs. Staff

Their definition of their responsibilities

*Staff Protecting the President

*3. Feeding Nixon's Flaws

*Nixon and constant crisis atmosphere

*Enemies List

*Paranoia

1972 Democrats

Muskie and McGovern

1972 Election

49 state victory

Nixon as a middle of the road, centrist

• Ending the Vietnam War

• Détente with USSR

• Opening to China

• EPA

Watergate

The problem with staff

“Yes, Mr. President”

Cambodia Bombing and leaks

Secret investigative unit -- Plumbers

            Their links to the White House and CREP (CREEP)

Watergate Burglary of DNC Headquarters 6/17/72

Woodward and Bernstein

Senate Committee

House Judiciary Committee

Grand Jury and John Sirica

Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox

The Tapes

Nixon's position on the tapes

Saturday Night Massacre

Elliott Richardson

Robert Bork

Leon Jaworski

US vs. Nixon

Revelations in the Tapes:

            Nixon part of cover-up

            Abuse of Power

            Nixon's claims of innocence

Process of Impeachment

House Judiciary Committee and articles of impeachment

Spiro Agnew

Gerald Ford becomes VP

The Process of 25^th Amendment

*The Pardon

Ford and Carter Review

Two incumbents beaten in a row

No-Win Presidency

Crisis of the Presidency

Imperial Presidency

Lying

Presidency and People

Presidency and Media -- Woodward and Bernstein

Antagonism

*Rise of interest group power

Congressional Power:

War Powers Resolution

Clark Amendment

Congressional Budget and Impoundment Act 1974

Impoundment

Information and expertise

Goals of New Congress

*Ford and spokes-of-the-wheel

*Rumsfeld as chief of staff

*Halloween Massacre

*1976 election

Carter campaign themes

Honesty

outsider

Carter's theory of Governing

*Politics vs. what is right

Trusteeship Presidency

Carter's idea vs. LBJ model

*No chief of staff

*Hamilton Jordan

*Alienating the Democrats in Congress

*Economic Problems

*Crisis of Confidence speech

*Iran Hostage Crisis

Carter's misunderstanding of leadership

A Crisis of Leadership?

REAGAN:

Reagan's past:

Happy Midwestern upbringing?

Acting

Anti-Communist Democrat

Goldwater supporter

Governor of California

Reagan (conservative wing) vs. Bush (moderate wing) in New Hampshire

Landslide over Carter

*Reagan as Republican FDR -- confidence, hope, leadership

*Reagan Beliefs (four priorities) Very important

*Reagan economic philosophy

*Criticism of the New Deal and Great Society

*Principles of Reaganomics

*Government vs. the Market

*Return to laissez-faire; rejection of Keynes

Reagan and US political spectrum

*Reagan realignment

*Reagan Coalition

*Undoing the Great Society

Reagan and the media

The Teflon President

Reagan’s slight reality problem

*The Troika
*Baker’s role

*Reagan’s disinterest in management

*Baker (pragmatist) vs. True Believers

*Baker and Donald Regan switch jobs

*Regan a disaster as Chief of Staff: poor management, thinking he was more important than the President

*Nancy Reagan power

Reagan political strategy

LBJ-style Bargaining compared to Reagan style

Elements of Reagan Media Strategy:

*Bully Pulpit

*Stage Events in controlled settings

Feed the Media

*Consistency of message -- Line of the Day/Sound Bites

*Selling the President

*Popularity = Power

*Iran-Contra

*Weapons to Contras

*Arms to Iran

*lying to Congress

*Congressional reaction: enraged

BUSH 41:

1980s Changes

*Reagan realignment

*Reagan success

1984 Election

Government is the problem

Bush as Insider (his experience in government)

Reagan vs. Bush in philosophy and political experience

The Vision Thing

*Small “c” vs. capital “C” conservatives (This is important)

Who decides the winner?

The success and power of conservative media

Rush Limbaugh

Fox News

Bush and party loyalty

"The Vision Thing" again

Bush history:

Moderate Republican

Appointed jobs for Republican Party -- loyalty

1988: No New Taxes

1990: Budget Deal

1992: a mistake to raise taxes

Gulf War

Wasting opportunities after the Gulf

Bush and failure to remake the party

Movement Conservatives win the day

CLINTON:

Democratic Party after 1984 election

Context

Why the growth of a moderate center?

*Democrats lost South

*Impact of Reagan revolution (shifting US politics to the right)

*Deficit

tax revolts of 1970s and 1980s

economic slowdown since 1970s

perceived failure of:

1. Democratic New Deal/Great Society

2. Reaganomics

Fight in each Party

*Democrats: centrist vs. liberal – centrists win

*New Democrats – Democratic Leadership Council

Socially liberal

Fiscally Conservative

Pro-Business

Government has limited, but important role

*Clinton as New Democrat

Education reform in Arkansas

The logic of Clinton's election

1992 election: Three way race

Ross Perot

President elected with only 43% of the vote

Is Clinton really a New Democrat?

1. Gays in the military

2. *Health care

3. *Budget

4. Triangulation and Welfare reform

5. Trade

Fighting protectionist Democrats

Economic world order building and globalization

Pro-business Democrat

Aggressive promotion of free trade

Modernizing the workforce

Republicans take the House and Senate 1994

The trust issue

Slick Willie

Scandals and accusations

The Gingrich Style: GoPac Memo

Clinton haters

Whitewater investigations (not the details)

*Vince Foster’s death

Lewinsky

*Ken Starr

*House impeaches

*Senate acquits

*Undisciplined Clinton

*as his own Chief of Staff

*Thomas McLarty as Chief

*Leon Panetta to save the day

George W. Bush (Bush 43)

Bush background

Prescott and Bush 41

Governor of Texas (moderate Republican)

*2000 Election

Gore (pretends Clinton doesn’t exist)

No winner on election day

Florida recount

537 votes

Impact of third party candidate (Nader)

The red and Blue map and polarization

*Bush as uniter and divider

*Goal of Republican unity instead of bipartisanship

*strategy of division or polarization

Trying to satisfy all conservative wings of Republican Party

Compassionate conservatism

Pre-modern presidency vs. modern presidency

Modern presidency as crisis presidency

Post-Modern Presidency?

Cold War ends

Fate of Bush 41, Clinton, and Bush 43 before 9/11

Impeachment of Clinton

Modern presidency really a crisis presidency and crisis has ended

Characteristics of Post-Modern Presidency

Weak executive

Powerful Congress

Madisonian style checks and balances

Governor of the USA?

Then 9/11

Crisis presidency reborn/New imperial presidency

Example of Bush increasing power

Example of Restraint on Bush

Congress and Courts restrain Bush quickly

Example of AUMF – unlimited power?

Used by Obama and Trump

Unitary Executive Theory

Executive power and Congressional oversight?

National security

Signing Statements and Unitary Executive Theory

Bush approval ratings decline

Iraq, Katrina, Great Recession

Obama Review

Obama background

Born in Honolulu, HI (which is a state of the US)

From Illinois State Senate to White House in four years

Balancing inexperience with experience in picking VP Biden (like Bush and Cheney)

*McCain-Palin (conservative and Movement Conservative)

*Palin as a precursor to Trump style

*The Birthers

2008 victory

Great Recession

Obama response: FDR style government spending

Massive deficits

*Affordable care Act (Obamacare)

*Reaction to Obama Care

*Legitimate criticism vs. demagoguery

*Birth of TEA Party

*TEA Party fringe elements

Obama ultimately loses House and Senate to Republicans

Obama wins reelection

*Republican Strategy: refuse to pass Obama legislation

Merrick Garland example

Obama strategy: executive orders

DREAM Act example

Legislation stalls

Obama implements law as if legislation passed

Obama approval record

No Drama Obama

Trump

The crisis in US democracy

Demagoguery

Lies and The Big Lie
January 6, 2021

What comparative politics tells us about the future of elections if people believe The Big Lie

Covid19, vaccinations, disinformation, and the loyalty to the leader

1. Election of 2016

Republican Primaries: Trump defeats establishment Republicans

His style

Clinton vs. Trump

Ugliness of the election

Two unpopular candidates

Trump wins Electoral College; loses popular vote

Third party candidates

States that voted for Obama and Trump

And manufacturing decline

Trump Coalition 2016

Meaning of Trump Victory?

Trump Precedents

Social media, disinformation, and Russia

The Russia Connection and Wikileaks?

Democratic Committee hacked by Russian intelligence

Information released by Wikileaks

Trump Campaign?

Robert Mueller

Investigations, and convictions

2. Trump Policies

Movement Conservative Policies

A satisfied constituency

Pro-life Justices

Gorsuch and Kavanaugh

Evangelical Support

Trump Policy on Immigration

Trump Policy on Trade

3. Trump Style

Use of Twitter

Attack style

Lying

Management

Policy by tweet

Turnover

Public Approval/Disapproval Patterns

4. Bigger Issues

1. Presidential Power

Continued increase in presidential power

Trump Views of Article 2 and absolute authority

New Imperial Presidency

Polarization means that members of congress won’t check and balance a president form their own party?

2. Movement Conservatives win

Conservative Media defines the Republican Party

Limbaugh and Fox News

No RINOs

Trump criticized by Republicans establishment while a candidate

Loved by Republican Establishment once in office

Support among Republican voters

3. Social Media

Alternative facts

Social Media as a source of information

opinion vs. fact

The Attention Economy

Context Matters

4. Populist Nationalism and The Danger to Democracy

Digital revolution

Inability to respond to digital revolution leads to new movements and rejection of establishment

To Establish Authority

1. Personalistic Rule

2. Conspiracy Theories

3. “Alternative Facts”

4. Attacks on the Press

5. Attacks on Institutions

a. Vs. Intelligence Community

b. Vs. Justice Department

To Delegitimize Opponents

1. Scapegoating

2. Trolling of Critics/Rivals

a. Twitter: nearly non-stop presidential communication; mostly negative; often with falsehoods

3. Encouraging Violence against Press and Political Opponents

4. Calls for Jailing Political Opponents

5. Declaration of Fraud at Elections that Don’t Go as Planned

Terms from Sykes

*battle among conservatives

*alternative reality bubble

*impact of hyperpartisanship

*misinformation/demagoguery

*polarization and sorting

*Hatred of media

*belief in conspiracy theories

*the negativity and anger

*Trump as a deal with the devil for Republican Party?

*TEA Party taken over by political operatives

*Radicalization of the party

*Refusal to compromise

*Radio and television becomes more radical, sets the agenda

*ideological purity

*social media amplifies

*end of journalism norms on the net

*Breitbart/Alex Jones

*Power of Fox News

*Impact of Rush Limbaugh

*Supports Trump 2015

*Alt Right

*Antisemitism

*Racism and white nationalists

*”Culture War”

*Belief that democrats are anti-Christian

*Anger at mainstream media

Terms from Brownstein relating to Red and Blue Polarization thesis

*Brownstein’s main thesis:

*The Democratic and Republican parties had both been coalitions of conservative and moderate/liberal elements

*In the 1960s this began to change (Civil Rights, Great Society, Vietnam, collapse of the New Deal Coalition and rise of the Reagan Coalition)

*Conservatives Democrats began to move to the Republican Party; Moderate Republicans began to move to the Democratic Party

*This led to a new party system: A conservative party faced off against a liberal party

*The result is greater polarization

Trump Impeachment Review

House Role

Senate Role

Russian seizure of Ukrainian territory 2014

The allegations against Biden (no evidence yet)

Trump withholds aid to Ukraine

The July 25 phone call

Whistleblower Report and WH Transcript

Charges: Trump extorting Ukrainian President

Begun investigation of Biden or lose aid from US

Impeachment Charges against Trump

Trump Defense (number 5 and 6 most important)

Trump acquitted

Party line vote (except for Mitt Romney (voted to convict Trump of Abuse of Power)