Review Sheet 2: POLI/INTL 363 Summer 2018

Bill Newmann

The exam will be the same format as the previous exam:

Two Sections:

Section 1: Short Answers: Choose 2 of 8 (or more): (15 points each):

Section 2: Choose 1 of 2 (maybe 3) essays: (70 points).

You will have two hours and 40 minutes to complete the exam. The exam is written for a regular hour and fifteen minute class session, but we have the room for close to three hours, so why not use it.

List of Terms:

*Bush 41 through Obama as retrenchment or maximalist presidents

Bush 41

Bush's Realism

Bush background

Post-Cold War national security environment

few threats

choice of where and when to intervene

Bush Foreign Policy:

Realism with idealist rhetoric?

*Iran-Iraq War

*US leans toward Iraq

*Tanker War

*USS Stark

*US shoots down Iranian air line

*The Gulf War:

*The Gulf as an idealist crusade against aggression

*Defending Saudi Arabia

*The New World Order

*The United Nations

*Multilateral coalition

*fighting aggression

upholding international law

*Air war

*Ground war

Iraq surrenders and the terms of its surrender

Must give up WMD

Inspections

New World Order? Bush Idealism? Or something else?

Other factors to consider:

1. Economic: OIL

2. Multilateralism?

Armed Forces participating

3. Realism:

*Why leave Saddam Hussein in power

*The breakup of Iraq?

*Iranian power

Somalia

Civil war and drought

Humanitarian Military Intervention

Clinton

*Clinton’s Idealism

Clinton’s huge shift in focus of US foreign policy

Economics as priority

building world order, but through economics

NAFTA, FTAA, APEC, WTO

Lack of Foreign Policy Consensus

The Clinton Doctrine?

From Containment to Enlargement/Engagement: “En-En Strategy”

*Core Group of Liberal-Democracies

*Transitional states/Economic transition: Former Soviet-bloc states

Rogue states

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Big Emerging Markets

Human Rights and Human Rights Crises

Multilateralism

*Clinton as a believer in convergence theory

Clinton and Somalia

*Clinton support for humanitarian military intervention/peace operations

*UN/US vs. General Aidid (leader of Somali faction that challenged the UN and US)

*Outcome of October 3, 1993: Battle of Mogadishu

*Public Opinion after Somalia

Rwanda 1994

Viet Nam Syndrome and Somalia failures lead to inaction by Clinton administration

*Bosnia

ethnic cleansing

Kosovo 1999

The model:

US airpower

Local ground troops

NATO, not UN-sponsored operations

NATO peacekeepers; US troops on the ground for peacekeeping

*Clinton and the al-Qaeda threat

*USS Cole

US and China (from lectures and Christensen)

*Christensen thesis: China is not a peer competitor

*its relative weakness compared to the US

*The US has been providing assistance

*The US and China are not in a hegemon-challenger relationship right now

*Chinese elites are not likely to challenge the US because they benefit from a strong economic relationship with the US

*Debate in China: Did assertive foreign policy beginning in 2009, hurt China’s relationship with neighbors: backlash

*Debate in US: Does China want the US out of East Asia or does China want a greater role in an East Asian that includes the US?

*Xi Jinping and the Chinese Dream policy

*Deng Xiaoping’s reforms 1978

*The economic boom in China

*BRICs

*Chinese trade and interdependence with the US and the rest of East Asia

*Can China, even if just a regional power, coerce the US and East Asian nations over East Asian issues?

*In short, China does not have to be the equal of the US to challenge the US and its allies in East Asia

*Taiwan’s move to democracy

*How it complicated US policy

*Taiwan independence?

*Lee Teng-hui visa issue

No political reforms, but…

History suggests that economic reforms lead to calls for political reform

*Tiananmen Square

*Bush policy after Tiananmen Square: How Bush viewed China: Realism

Congressional pressure and Most Favored Nation policy

Clinton campaign policy: Idealism

*China as human rights problem

*China as BEM

Clinton administration arguments and outcome

Clinton sets deadline for China

Clinton decides not to link Chinese progress in human rights to trade with the US

Hypocrisy or Learning?

Clinton’s argument: trade sanctions will not change China, but trade might change China

*Bush and China as a strategic competitor

*Responsible Stakeholder” thesis (Robert Zoellick)

*Strategic and Economic Dialogue

*How North Korea pushes the US and China toward cooperation

*China’s Nine-Dash Line

*Competing claims in the Paracel and Spratly Islands (not individual islands, but who is arguing)

*Oil and trade routes through S. China Sea

*Obama Policy: The Pivot or Rebalance (important) (also below)

*Steinberg and “strategic reassurance”

Bush 43

*Bush belief in primacy?

Divisions within administration

*Hegemonists (Primacy)

*Neoconservatives

Unilateralism

The New Threat of AQ and Islamic Radicalism

*September 11

*Who was responsible?

*Al-Qaeda (AQ)

*Osama bin-Laden

Bin-Laden’s fatwas

*Clinton administration warnings to Bush 43 about AQ

*The elements of AQ’s ideology

Origins of Sunni Extremism (The big Chart)

AQ’s Its roots in Afghanistan in the 1980s

Taliban in Afghanistan

Zia in Pakistan and Islamic radical ideology

Religious schools around the Muslim world (madrassas) and their ideology

Why this is not mainstream Islam and is more dangerous for Muslims than anyone else

*AQ’s goals (why attack the US)

Terrorism in a foreign policy context

What is new about terrorism today?

Bush Doctrine

*Choosing sides

*Pakistan’s role

*Afghanistan invasion and the difficulties

*Northern Alliance

*Fighting the Taliban in 2001 and still today

*Preemption if necessary

*Linkage of terrorism and WMD threat

*Axis of Evil

Multilateralism only when necessary

*Regime Change

*Idealism and the spread of liberal democracy

*Bush’s “Freedom Agenda”

*Wright on Middle East

*US as status quo power

*Too many revisionist powers

The Iraq War

1. *Bush administration’s argument for invading Iraq

*Saddam Hussein will use WMD on the US

*Iraq will give WMD to terrorists

After the war begins US finds Iraq had no WMD

2. To plant the seed of democracy

*Bush administration ambitious plan to transform the Middle East (“Freedom Agenda”)

*Iraq becomes democracy, then Domino Theory

Outcome of the war

1. *Insurgency

2. *al-Qaeda in Iraq born

3. *Sectarian conflict: Sunni vs. Shi’ite vs. Kurds

· *Bush administration expectations: war ends when Saddam is gone

· *Firing the military and the Ba’ath Party

· *Troop level debate

4. *US bogged down in a way until 2011

5. Tipping the balance of power in the region in favor of Iran

6. US public opinion turns against the war

7. International opinion turns against the US

*US Counterinsurgency policy

*The surge 2007

*Awakening Councils

*David Petraeus

Obama Foreign Policy

*Obama and convergence thesis

*Obama as retrenching

*acceptance of multipolarity?

1. *Two US counterinsurgency wars

*Leaving Iraq

*Getting deeper into Afghanistan

*Obama’s belief Afghanistan was always the real front against AQAM

*increasing troop levels

2. Global war against radical Islam

Use of Drones

*al-Awlaki and AQAP

*Killing bin-Laden

3. Arab Uprising

Balancing US interests

Competing interests in the region

*Syrian Civil War

*Policy of non-intervention

The rise of ISIS

4. *The Pivot or Rebalancing (See the earlier China lecture and Christensen readings on S. China Sea and China as a threat or opportunity)

Russia

President Putin

Key elements of Putin Foreign Policy (from PPT slide)

• *Return to Great Power Status

• Reclaim Sphere of Influence

• Near Abroad

• *Weaken NATO

• *Undermine Liberal Democracy

Putin’s authoritarian style at home

*Hybrid Warfare

• *Mixture of Cyberattacks

• *Information Warfare

• *Media/social Media Disinformation Campaigns

• *Paramilitary Operations

Russia vs. Estonia

Russia vs. Georgia

Russia vs. Ukraine

Little Green Men

Crimea and Russian sphere of influence

Russian Cyberespionage and information warfare

*Brexit

2016 US Election

Trump Foreign Policy

Major Changes to Post-WW II Order

America First

*Rejection of hegemonic leadership

Transactional or Mercenary policy

Free Trade Agenda

Rejection of NAFTA

Rejection of TPP

Rejection of Post-WW II Liberalism

Post-War Alliance Structure

NATO as obsolete

Criticism of US traditional allies

Russia

The friendship toward Russia

Russian hacking of Democratic Party

The controversy with Trump campaign and Russia

Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller

China

Why not two Chinas?

Okay, One China

Continuity?

North Korea

Iran

ISIS

Wright

*Convergence thesis

*Divergence: emergence of new competition: geopolitical competition

*Revisionist powers

*How US support for liberal democratic order threatens emerging powers

*How revisionist powers want to change liberal democratic order

*Russia and China and battle over spheres of influence

*European integration

*reversal of European integration

*BREXIT

*Russian attempts to undermine Europe

*Russian hybrid warfare

*Interdependence: the uses and vulnerabilities

*US liberal order: willingness to pay the costs?

*US Grand Strategy

*deter revisionism

*maintain liberal order

*Obama restraint and drawbacks

*Offshore balancing

*retrenchment

*strategic accommodation

*Responsible competition

*recognize competition

*Understand competitors goals

*Understand US priorities

*Preserve liberal order

*stabilize regional balance of power (allies)

*The dilemma of Trump strategy