Review Sheet 2: POLI 363 Summer 2016

Bill Newmann

The exam will be the same format as the previous exam:

Two Sections:

Section 1: Short Answers: Choose 2 of 8 (or more): (20 points each):

Section 2: Choose 1 of 2 (maybe 3) essays: (60 points).

You will have two hours and 40 minutes to complete the exam. The exam is written for a regular hour and fifteen minute class session, but we have the room for close to three hours, so why not use it.

One important change in the PPT presentations: You can ignore the PPT slides in the Obama presentation that deal with the Rise of China. You’ve had them in the earlier China PPT.

List of Terms:

*Bush 41 through Obama as retrenchment or maximalist presidents

Bush 41

Bush's Realism

Bush background

Post-Cold War national security environment

few threats

choice of where and when to intervene

Bush Foreign Policy:

Realism with idealist rhetoric?

*The Gulf War:

*The Gulf as an idealist crusade against aggression

*Defending Saudi Arabia

*The New World Order

*The United Nations

*Multilateral coalition

*fighting aggression

upholding international law

Iraq surrenders and the terms of its surrender

*Must give up WMD

*IAEA and UNSCOM inspections

New World Order? Bush Idealism? Or something else?

Other factors to consider:

1. Economic: OIL

2. Multilateralism?

Armed Forces participating

3. Realism:

*Why leave Saddam Hussein in power

The breakup of Iraq?

Iranian power

Somalia

Humanitarian Military Intervention

Clinton

*Clinton’s Idealism

Clinton’s huge shift in focus of US foreign policy

Economics as priority

building world order, but through economics

NAFTA, FTAA, APEC, WTO

Lack of Foreign Policy Consensus

The Clinton Doctrine?

From Containment to Enlargement/Engagement: “En-En Strategy”

Core Group of Liberal-Democracies

Transitional states/Economic transition: Former Soviet-bloc states

Rogue states

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Big Emerging Markets

Human Rights and Human Rights Crises

Multilateralism

Clinton and Somalia

Peace Enforcement/Peace Making concept

Clinton support for humanitarian military intervention/peace operations

UN/US vs. General Aidid (leader of Somali faction that challenged the UN and US)

Outcome of October 3, 1993

Public Opinion after Somalia

Rwanda 1994

Viet Nam Syndrome and Somalia failures lead to inaction by Clinton administration

*Bosnia

ethnic cleansing

Kosovo 1999

The model:

US airpower

Local ground troops

NATO, not UN-sponsored operations

NATO peacekeepers; US troops on the ground for peacekeeping

*Clinton and the al-Qaeda threat

US and China (from lectures and Christensen)

*Christensen thesis

*China is not a peer competitor

*its relative weakness compared to the US

*The US has been providing assistance

*The US and China are not in a hegemon-challenger relationship right now

*Chinese elites are not likely to challenge the US because they benefit from a strong economic relationship with the US

*Debate in China: Did assertive foreign policy beginning in 2009, hurt China’s relationship with neighbors: backlash

*Debate in US: Does China want the US out of East Asia or does China want a greater role in an East Asian that includes the US?

*Xi Jinping and the Chinese Dream policy

The reasons for the strategic relationship in the 1970s

*Deng Xiaoping’s reforms 1978

*The economic boom in China

*BRICs

*Chinese trade and interdependence with the US and the rest of East Asia

*Can China, even if just a regional power, coerce the US and East Asian nations over East Asian issues?

*In short, China does not have to be the equal of the US to challenge the US and its allies in East Asia

*Taiwan’s move to democracy

*How it complicated US policy

*Taiwan independence?

*Lee Teng-hui visa issue

No political reforms, but…

History suggests that economic reforms lead to calls for political reform

*Tiananmen Square

*Bush policy after Tiananmen Square: How Bush viewed China: Realism

Congressional pressure and Most Favored Nation policy

Jackson-Vanik Amendment

Clinton campaign policy: Idealism

*China as human rights problem

*China as BEM

Clinton administration arguments and outcome

Clinton sets deadline for China

Clinton decides not to link Chinese progress in human rights to trade with the US

Hypocrisy or Learning?

Clinton’s argument: trade sanctions will not change China, but trade might change China

*Bush and China as a strategic competitor

*Responsible Stakeholder” thesis (Robert Zoellick)

*Strategic and Economic Dialogue

*How North Korea pushes the US and China toward cooperation

*China’s Nine-Dash Line

*Competing claims in the Paracel and Spratly Islands (not individual islands, but who is arguing)

*Oil and trade routes through S. China Sea

*Obama Policy: The Pivot or Rebalance (important)

*Steinberg and “strategic reassurance”

Bush 43

Bush II?

Key advisers

Rice role

Divisions within administration

Balance of power realists

Hegemonists

*Neoconservatives

Examples of the views and proponents of each

Unilateralism

Missile Defense

The New Threat of AQ and Islamic Radicalism (much of this comes from the Freedman book)

September 11

Who was responsible?

Al-Qaeda (AQ)

Osama bin-Laden

Bin-Laden’s fatwas

*AQ’s Its roots in Afghanistan in the 1980s

*Taliban in Afghanistan

*Zia in Pakistan and Islamic radical ideology

*Inter-services Intelligence

Religious schools around the Muslim world (madrassas) and their ideology

Why this is not mainstream Islam and is more dangerous for Muslims than anyone else

*Clinton administration warnings to Bush 43 about AQ

*AQ’s ideology

*Muslim Brotherhood

* Sayyid Qutb

*AQ’s goals (why attack the US)

*AQ’s organization (network-based)

*Attack on World Trade Center 1993

Bush Doctrine

*Choosing sides

*Preemption if necessary

*Linkage of terrorism and WMD threat

*Axis of Evil

Multilateralism only when necessary

*Regime Change

*Pakistan’s role

*Afghanistan invasion and the difficulties

*Idealism and the spread of liberal democracy

*US counterterrorism policy (Mazzetti)

*New priority in CIA

*DoD vs. CIA

*US-Pakistan relations

*Authorization to Use Military Force (2001)

*Drones become a key part of US strategy

*CIA interrogation policy: torture?

*Somalia and Islamic Courts Union

*Obama moves to drone policy of targeted killings

The Iraq War

1. Bush administration’s argument for invading Iraq

*WMD

*UNSCOM’s inspections by 2002?

*The arguments for the invasion

*Saddam Hussein will use WMD on the US

*Iraq is undeterrable

*Iraq will give WMD to terrorists

The arguments against the invasion

After the war begins US finds Iraq had no WMD

2. To plant the seed of democracy

*Iraq Liberation Act 1998

*Bush administration ambitious plan to transform the Middle East

*Iraq becomes democracy, then Domino Theory

*Iraqi National Congress and Ahmad Chalabi

Divisions within Iraq and prospects for democracy

3. Unfinished business

leftover business from Bush 41

Getting rid of a regional threat that challenged the US

Outcome of the war

1. *Insurgency

2. *Sectarian conflict

3. *US bogged down in a way until 2011

4. Tipping the balance of power in the region in favor of Iran

5. US public opinion turns against the war

6. International opinion turns against the US

7. Recruiting boost for AQAM

*US Counterinsurgency policy

*The surge 2007

Obama Foreign Policy

Obama National Security Strategy

Definitions of threats and the US Role

1. Two US counterinsurgency wars

Leaving Iraq

Getting deeper into Afghanistan

Obama’s belief Afghanistan was always the real front against AQAM

2. Global war against radical Islam

*Drone strikes

*AQ in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

*Anwar al-Awlaki

*Obama strategy vs. Bush strategy

*US and Pakistan

*Killing bin-Laden

3. Arab Uprising

Balancing US interests

Competing interests in the region

Syrian Civil War

Policy of non-intervention

The rise of ISIS