Review Sheet 2: POLI 363 Summer 2009

Bill Newmann

*The exam will be the same format as the previous exam:

Two Sections:

            Section 1: Short Answers: Choose 3 of 8: (13 points each):

            Section 2: Choose 1 of 2 (maybe 3) essays: (60 points).

            *1 bonus point for spelling Clinton's name correctly if you answer a question about him.

You will have two hours and 40 minutes to complete the exam. You will not need it.

 

List of Terms:

 

US in the Middle East

Birth of Israel

The Palestinian Problem

1948 War

Six Day Way: 1967

PLO Terrorism

*Israeli Occupied Territories

            *West Bank

*Gaza Strip

Golan Heights

*October War 1973

*US Policy

*Soviet Policy

*Impact of Nuclear Weapons?

*Israeli Settlement Policy

*Anwar Sadat

*Camp David Accords

*First Intifada

*Hamas

*Oslo Accords

*Palestinian Authority

*Hamas vs. Fatah

 

 

End of the Cold War:

Soviet Succession

Yuri Andropov

Konstantin Chernenko

Mikhail Gorbachev

New Thinking

            *Economic restructuring (perestroika)

            *Political freedoms (glasnost)

            Ending the cold war

                        Ending the Arms race

                        End to regional conflict

Reagan and Bush responses

Freeing of Eastern Europe

            *Solidarity

Economic collapse in USSR

*USSR collapses

            15 republics

August 1991 Coup

Boris Yeltsin

 

 

Bush 41

Bush's Realism

Bush background

Post-Cold War national security environment

            few threats

            choice of where and when to intervene

Bush Foreign Policy:

            Realism with idealist rhetoric?

The Gulf War:

The Gulf as an idealist crusade against aggression

            The United Nations

            Multilateral coalition

            fighting aggression

            upholding international law

Iraq surrenders and the terms of its surrender

            Must give up WMD

            IAEA and UNSCOM inspections

New World Order? Bush Idealism? Or something else?

Other factors to consider:

            1. Economic: OIL

            2. Multilateralism?

                        Armed Forces participating

            3. Realism:

                        Why leave Saddam Hussein in power

The breakup of Iraq?

                        Iranian power

Somalia

Humanitarian Military Intervention

Bush valedictory speech

            When should the US intervene?  It depends…

 

*US and China

*The reasons for the strategic relationship in the 1970s

*Taiwan’s move to democracy

*Deng Xiaoping’s reforms 1978

*The economic boom in China

Views of China

            *As a threat to the US, a rising power

            *As a massive human rights violator

            *As the biggest Big Emerging Market of all

*Bush policy after Tiananmen Square: How Bush views China

*Congressional pressure and Most Favored Nation policy

*Clinton campaign policy            

Clinton sets deadline for China

Economic team wins the argument

Clinton decides not to link Chinese progress in human rights to trade with the US

Hypocrisy or Learning?

Clinton’s argument: trade sanctions will not change China, but trade might change China

*1996 crisis in this context

What kept the crisis from escalating: common interests

 

Clinton

Making foreign policy without a threat

Clinton’s Idealism

Clinton’s huge shift in focus of US foreign policy

Economics as priority

            building world order, but through economics

                        NAFTA, FTAA, APEC, WTO

Lack of Foreign Policy Consensus

 

The Clinton Doctrine?

From Containment to Enlargement/Engagement: “En-En Strategy”

Core Group of Liberal-Democracies

Transitional states/Economic transition: Former Soviet-bloc states

Rogue states

Weapons of Mass Destruction

Big Emerging Markets

Human Rights and Human Rights Crises

Multilateralism

 

Clinton and Somalia

Peace Enforcement concept

Clinton support for humanitarian military intervention/peace operations

UN/US vs. General Aidid

Outcome of October 3, 1993

Public Opinion after Somalia

Rwanda 1994

            Viet Nam Syndrome and Somalia failures lead to inaction by Clinton administration

Bosnia            

            Lift and Strike: The instinct to intervene, but need for multilateralism stops it (1993)

ethnic cleansing

Kosovo 1999

The model:

            US airpower

            Local ground troops

            NATO, not UN-sponsored operations

            NATO peacekeepers; US troops on the ground for peacekeeping

Dilemmas of En-En

            China: Human rights or BEM as priority

 

 

Bush 43

Bush II

*Key advisers

*Divisions within administration

            *Balance of power realists

            *Hegemonists

            *Neoconservatives

*Examples of the views and proponents of each

*Unilateralism

*Missile Defense

 

September 11

Who was responsible?

Al-Qaeda (AQ)

Osama bin-Laden

Bin-Laden’s fatwas

            AQ’s Its roots in Afghanistan in the 1980s

            Its revolutionary ideology

            Religious schools around the Muslim world (madrassas) and their ideology

            Why this is not mainstream Islam and is more dangerous for Muslims than anyone else

AQ’s goals (why attack the US)

Changing US foreign policy (what aspects it wishes to change)

What terrorism is?  What AQ’s method is

Political violence

Violence as the method

            Asymmetric warfare

targeting of civilians

Publicity

 

Bush Doctrine

Choosing sides

Preemption if necessary

Linkage of terrorism and WMD threat

            Axis of Evil

Multilateralism only when necessary

Regime Change

            Afghanistan and Iraq

Idealism and the spread of liberal democracy

 

The Iraq War

Desert Fox raids

*1. Bush administration’s argument for invading Iraq

            *WMD

*The arguments for the invasion

            *Saddam Hussein will use WMD on the US

            Iraq is undeterrable

            *Iraq will give WMD to terrorists

The arguments against the invasion

            *Iraq is developing WMD to deter Iran and Israel and for prestige

            Iraq can be deterred

*After the war begins US finds Iraq had no WMD

*Intelligence problems

            *Tenet exaggeration

            *DoD cherry picking

            *Politics

 

*2. To plant the seed of democracy

*Bush administration ambitious plan to transform the Middle East

*Iraq becomes democracy, then Domino Theory

*Can you create a democracy from scratch?

Divisions within Iraq and prospects for democracy

 

*3. Unfinished business

*leftover business from Bush 41

*Getting rid of a regional threat that challenged the US

 

*Debate in administration about invading

*Debate about troop levels and aftermath of military operations – nation building

            *Future of Iraq Project

*Internal issues about creating democracy: divisions in Iraq

*External issues: Iran, Syria, AQ

*Ahmad Chalabi and Iraqi National Congress

*US invasion 3/19/03

*May 1, 2003: US declares victory

*US expectations

*Looting, security, services

*OHRA

*Political parties emerge

*The nature of Iraqi political parties

            *sectarian

*CPA takes over

            *De-Baathification

            *Firing of Iraqi army

            *Results

*Insurgency begins

            *Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)

*The level of violence

*Insurgent Goals

*Complexity of Iraqi insurgency

 

2006-2009

Awakening Councils

Local groups and US vs. AQI

The surge

US withdrawal plans under Obama

 

The Future

Assessment of the World

*US unipolarity

*Globalization: economic and political

*Integration and Identity

*Decline in power of nation-state

*multipolarity

*Hegemony by legitimacy, not by power alone

            market-driven hegemony

 

Ambition-US Purpose

*Unipolarity or multipolarity

            *institution-based world order

*Bismarck not Britain

*Revisionist world order

 

Threats and Opportunities

1. *Great Power Rivalry or Synergy

            status quo vs. revisionist powers

            *China and India

            *BRIC

*Capitalism prevents war

*Ideological conflict (democracy)

Nuclear weapons as peacekeepers?

 

2. WMD

Nations

Terrorists

Deterrence

3. Alternate Ideologies

soft authoritarian

theocratic states

theocratic movements (al-Qaeda)

anti-globalization/nationalist states and movements

 

4. Major Disruptions

5. US at home