POLI/
Bill Newmann
The exam format will be the same as the previous exam: 65 multiple-choice questions
Terms that are preceded by an asterisk (*) are dealt with in the readings.
List of Terms:
Review the PPT slides in the Intro to Security slideshow
The important aspects here are the computer revolution and the early conclusions of the new era.
War
and Peace:
Clausewitz major premise about war and politics
General reasons “Why War?”
Five Theories
1.Human Nature:
War as human nature
Thomas Hobbes on why we have war
Rousseau on why we can learn peace
How Europe learned to have peace
*2. Balance of Power: Realism:
Number of poles of power
*War caused by imbalance of power
WW I caused by an imbalance of power
*Peace achieved through stable balance of power
Concert of Europe
Cold War balance of power
Bipolarity after the Cold War: what might that look like?
China’s claims in the South China Sea
The Nine Dash Line (see the PPT on China’s Rising Power; it’s on the map)
Balancing with or Bandwagoning against a rising power
3. *Power Transition/Long Cycle Theory: Realism:
*peace imposed by a dominant power
*war caused by challenges to that dominant power
The 100 year cycle of war and peace
Implications (US decline?)
*US hegemonic power (American Dominance)
*China as the rising challenger?
4. Nuclear Revolution
Peace caused by the fear of nuclear weapons
*Nuclear deterrence
War caused by irrational, outlaw states: Can they be deterred?
Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Iran, North Korea
If nuclear weapons can’t be used, how do Great Powers compete and fight
Technology, cyber war, hybrid warfare
5. Interdependence: Idealism:
Global Economic Marketplace as cause of peace
Free Trade
Interdependence
war caused by outsiders, non-free traders, closed economies
International
Organizations
Transnationalism defined
*IGOs
*alliances
*NATO
*Interpol example
*growth of IGOs
*Realist views of IGOs
*Liberalism/Idealism views of IGOs
*Regional IGOs
*European Union
*An example of the elements of its structure
League of Nations
*IGOs and sovereignty
United Nations
*UN Charter differs from League of Nations Covenant
*Realist aspect of the UN Charter: UN structure recognizes power
*Perm 5 in UN Security Council as the evidence
*UN Charter
UN does not replace nation-state sovereignty (Article 2)
*UN General Assembly
trends in UN membership and why was there an increase since 1945
*UN Security Council
*voting procedures
*Permanent 5
*veto
*UN Secretary General
responsibilities
selection
*Antonio Guterres
*Secretariat
*Collective Security
*Chapter 7 of the UN Charter
*Collective Security during the Cold War: No consensus at the UNSC
Korean War Collective Security (1950-1953)
*Collective security after the Cold War: the Persian Gulf War
*International Court of Justice
*Just War Doctrine
Nationalism, Ethno-Nationalist
Conflict, and the UN
Definition
of Nationalism
state
(territorial entity)
government:
type and regime
nation
Interaction
among characteristics (nation-state fit)
nation-state
fit and nationalism
Ethno-nationalist
wars
Most
wars today: ethno-nationalist wars, not wars between nation-states
Examples
of poor nation-state fit leading to civil wars
Bad
borders
*Sykes-Picot
Agreement
*Chapter 6 and its area of concern
*Peacekeeping Operations (PKO)
*Types of operations in PKO
*Buffer/interpositioning missions
*Peace enforcement/Peacemaking (Second generation Peacekeeping)
*R2P
*First test Case: Somalia 1992-1993 (success or failure)
*Rwanda 1994?
Lessons of Peace Enforcement (see PPT slide)
NGOs
*Definition
Good News
Lobbying and action-oriented NGOs
Human Rights Watch
International
Campaign to
NGOs: The Bad News
Terrorism
Not foreign; not new
*Different types of terrorism
Acceleration of Terrorism since 1990s
Definitions of terrorism:
Political
Terrorism is a strategy
violence to achieve a political agenda
to show power (realist explanation)
A weapon of the weak
Terrorist Logic at work in Spain 2004
Terrorist’s needs and How globalization makes terrorism easier
Who attacked on 9/11?
AQAM
*Osama bin Laden
*Al-Qaeda (AQ) terrorist organization
Why AQAM is important
Non-state actor with power projection
Non-state actor with global strategic goals
Network organization living off of globalization
Limits of its ideology
al-Qaeda’s ideology
al-Qaeda’s goals
AQAM Origins
Origins of ideology
Afghanistan War 1979-1989
AQAM after the war
Birth of ISIS from inside AQAM
Role of Syrian Civil War
Politics, not religion
Social Media and Conflict
and IR
Traditional: Government power over communication and media
censorship and silencing of dissent
War has always had a narrative component: propaganda
New Era: Governments now have rivals
Power of organizations and people to communicate: information and propaganda
Early ideas of digital era: the web would set us all free
Tahrir Square and Arab Uprising
Authoritarian states would fade
New Reality: world is an information battlefield
And LYING
*Social media as propaganda
Attention Economy and what gets attention
Birthers and Trump emergence as political factor
*Competition to control narrative, to define reality
Social media creates reality bubbles/echo chambers
“Alternative facts”
Moynihan argument
*Ukraine 2014
Importance of context
Problem of Spin
Russia 2016 Info Warfare Operations
US election
Brexit
From Singer and
Brooking (This the reading guideline list I sent everyone at the beginning of the
second section of the course)
*Goal of social media: drawing attention
*Ability to draw attention is a form of power
*Attention economy
*ISIS on social media during Mosul attach and recruiting
*ISIS tweeting invasion of Mosul
*ISUS recruiting on net
*Bottom line: can I get you to believe what I want you to believe; to persuade; to influence
*Influence operations as sharp power
*Impact of communications in war historically
*ARPANET
*Impact of iPhone and apps
*Twitter impact: direct communications between anyone and everyone
*Domination of access to all of this by a few tech giants
*Everyone is a reporter
*Everything you say is public
*Nothing is deleted
*Information and disinformation
*OSINT
*Social media and political organization/movements
*The good (for human rights) and the bad (for racism and terrorism)
*Arab Uprising/Arab Spring example
*China’s Great Firewall
*Chinese government controls access and does surveillance of everything every citizen does on social media
*Russian disinformation
*Russian disinformation to disrupt Russian enemies
*Russian disinformation to discredit democracy (because Russia is not a democracy)
*Sock puppets
*“Kompramat”
*“Gaslighting” and challenging reality
*Eliminating the set of shared facts
*Anti-vaccines and challenging reality
*Selling conspiracies
*Alt right propaganda
*Comet Ping Pong
*US conservatives who reject traditional media
*Politicians spreading false information
*Candidate Trump retweeting Russian bots
*Five key elements of digital warfare (“Likewar techniques” in index)
*Social media means governments no longer control communications
*Global information warfare
*Political activists propaganda warfare
*Nation-states propaganda warfare
*Memetics
*Russia and Ukraine: mobilizing people on social media to change facts
*Russia using social media to divide Europe: Brexit, refugees
*Trolls and trolling as a strategy
*How billions on social media can be manipulated easily
*Social media platforms (Facebook, Twitter) and accountability
*When Facebook and twitter are used for terrorism, incitement of violence, to organize racist groups
*2016 election Russian interference
*SMEIR
*Likewar rules
*Deep Fakes
*Importance of information literacy