POLI 391 US National Security

Spring 2017

Review 2

You will have two hours and 40 minutes to complete the exam. You will not need it. This is written to be taken in an hour and 15 minutes

The only change from the syllabus is in the Technology and Strategy PPT. Stop at Slide 16. Once you see Robby the Robot stop. Everything after that we did not get to.

List of Terms

Second Nuclear Age

1. *Multipolarity or multiplayer game (Bracken)

*MAD is out (Bracken)

*Possible use and threat of use at lower levels against multiple opponents is the new normal (Bracken)

Asymmetrical relationships

A. Strategic level

US and Russia

*Russian reliance on nuclear weapons to make up for conventional weaponry inferiority

*emphasis on cyber warfare

*perception of US missile defense as offensive

US and China

*China’s reason for a nuclear weapon:

*to be taken seriously (Bracken)

*to deter US during Vietnam War (Bracken)

*To deter the USSR when Sino-Soviet split occurred (Bracken)

*Chinese Nuclear Doctrine

nuclear weapons to prevent coercion by the US

*survivability

*mobile missiles; hidden missiles

Warfighting capability

*Conventional missiles to threaten US bases in the Pacific (Bracken)

B. Regional level

*Greatest danger for nuclear war in the second nuclear age is regional (Bracken)

*Second mover advantage (Bracken)

*Israel’s nuclear bomb (Bracken)

*South Africa’s nuclear bomb (Bracken)

a) *South Asia

*India

*Its first bomb

*Its 1998 tests

*vs. Pakistan

**Pakistan’s 1998 tests

*Pakistan is losing the arms race (Bracken)

*Pakistan’s NCA dilemma (Bracken)

Did India sacrifice its conventional advantage by going nuclear?

*vs. China

b) Problems

*North Korea

*Nuclear weapons as extortion (Bracken)

*2006 test

*Six Party talks

THAAD

*The Middle East

*Iran

*Can they? Will they?

*P5+1

JCPOA

*Iraq

*Convincing Iran it had the bomb

*Signaling to the US it didn’t

*Israel and Iran

*Should Israel attack Iran? (Bracken)

*Escalation dominance: Israel and Iran (Bracken)

*Possible consequences of a war with Iran (Bracken)

*Israeli nuclear doctrine (Bracken)

*Iranian nuclear doctrine (Bracken)

b) *Terrorism?

AQAM

Iran and Hezbollah?

2. Deterrence

New strategies of deterrence to deal with regional threats

Impact on US-Russia relationship

A. Missile Defense

Strategic Defense Initiative

Consensus on National Missile Defense

Deterrence by denial

B. Prompt Global Strike and why it has been developed

Why develop prompt global strike

C. Use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states

3. Arms Control

Strategic

Russia: SORT and New Start: equality

US and China?

Regional

Nuclear Energy

NPT

IAEA

The Problems

Solution: coercion, sanctions, talks

*North Korea

*Six Party talks

Iran: P5+1

Iraq: 2003 invasion

Ignore the Missile Technology Control Regime slide

4. *Rationality

*“Undeterrables”

*Does deterrence exist for all states?

Terrorists

rationality of groups that use suicide bombing?

The Future

1. Big Power Rivalry

*US and China Bipolarity

*South China Sea

Nine-Dash Line

Spratly Islands

Paracel Islands

Oil, Natural gas, and trade routes in the South China Sea

UNCLOS (what it is in general; you don’t need to know everything on the slide; that’s for reference)

2. Interdependence

*Will China change rules that enabled it to get rich

3. *Multipolarity

*US hegemony will end

4. *Leadership not hegemony

*Institutional leadership

*Rules

5. *Ideological leadership?

Liberal Democracy vs.

Theocracy

*Soft Authoritarianism

6. Domestic Problems in the US and the end of hegemony

Polarization

*Education

Deficit and Debt

Can the US afford to maintain its defense expenditure?

US federal spending: how much on defense and how much on other things

7. *Fundamental Changes

A. Transformation of the Nation-State System

1. *Urbanization and Inequality

1. *megacities

2. *People Power or State Breakdown

1. *Arab Uprising

3. *Disturbance Democracy

4. Non-state actors

1. Organizations vs. nation states (examples)

2. ISIS global reach

3. Transnational organized crime

B. *Inward Focus

C. Infectious Disease

D. Climate Change

Technology

Power Projection and what it depends on

PGMs

Thanh Hoa Bridge

RMA

Lifting the Fog of War?

Information dominance

Gulf War

What the Chinese learned from 1990/91 Gulf War

The Chinese response?

Cyberspace:

*security of the net?

*Types of cyberattacks

*Governments using hackers to do the job

*Hackitivism

*Stuxnet/Olympic Games

CHEW (Caudle)

1. *C4ISR

goal: dominance

*reality: dependence

*fear: Vulnerability

2. *Cyberespionage

*identification and attribution

3. *Critical Infrastructure vulnerability

*Cyber 9/11?

4. *Cyberwar?

*Definition

*Cyberwar vs. Kinetic war

*Can it be a real threat to destroy a nation or just an annoyance?

*Is it a path to victory in war?

*Is it something new or just another element of traditional war?

*China and Russia threats

*Chinese view of US control of the internet

*Unit 61398

*Chinese strategy of “infomatization”

North Korean threat

US strategy

*deterrence by punishment and denial

*cyber capability race

*Cyber Command

*Syria and Israel example 2007

*Estonia 2007

*Georgia 2008

*Limits on cyber war: Critical Infrastructure Non-Disruption Treaty?

From Adam Caudle’s lecture

Some of the terms mentioned above in this section were also mentioned in the lecture, so make sure you take a look at your notes for that if they relate to the terms above. For terms from the Caudle lecture that are also mentioned in Singer and Friedman, you’ll see an asterisks

*Zero Day or Zero Day Exploit

*Attribution

*Advanced Persistent Threat

US-China Cyber Pact 2015

*Global Trends 2035

*Key Trends

*Populations trends

*Rich are aging

*Poor are young

*South Asian and African youth

*Shift in Global Economy

*Extreme poverty in decline

*Western middle class under stress

*Gap between rich and poor

*Backlash against globalization

*Populism/nationalism

*Technology

*ICT

*Acceleration and discontinuity

*Winners and losers

*The impact of automation and AI

*Ideas and Identity

*Globalization leads to populism

*Leaders exploiting appeals to identity

*Internet makes exclusion and separation easier

*Governing is more difficult

*People demand more; Democracy must produce

*Complexity of issues

*Veto players

*Change in the nature of conflict

*Non-state actors

*Blur between peace and war

*WMD

*Climate change, environment, health

*Near term

*More assertive Russia and China

*Three Scenarios

1. *Islands

2. *Orbits

3. *Communities

*The importance of building resilience

*Five Stresses

*Mass migration

*Gender Imbalance

*Geopolitics becoming more ideological

*Non-state actor power