Review Sheet 2: POLI/INTL 363 Fall 2020

Bill Newmann

This looks big, but don't worry. If you have come to class, or viewed the lectures, and done all the reading, nothing here should be new to you.

Also, though there are a lot of terms, obviously, not each one of them is the subject of an essay. These terms, in order, are an outline of everything we've done so far. A group of them might be the subject of an essay, or maybe a comparison between one president's foreign policy and another. Usually, you can't explain a single term without referring to the terms next to it. So, really, if you can say one or two things about each term and how it relates to the terms around it and fits into the larger scheme of US foreign policy you're doing fine. Some terms, however, are filled with enough significance to be short answers/identifications on the test, but you'll be able to figure out which ones.

Remember that you have the PPT slides. They are a version of this review sheet.

Terms with (*) in front of them may not have been included in the lectures, but were discussed, at length, in the readings.

This a take home exam.

You have roughly two days to complete the exam.  

It will consist of two parts:

• Part 1: Short Answers: Choose 2 of 8 (or more to choose from): (20 points each; roughly one half of a page): I’ll have a list of terms taken directly from the review sheet. Define the term and tell me why it’s important in the context of US foreign policy.
• Part 2: Essay: Choose 1 of 2 (maybe 3 to choose from): (60 points; roughly 3-4 pages). Each essay has several parts to it. Make sure to do all parts of the essay. There are choices even within the essay, so make sure you read the directions. A part of an essay may say “choose 3 of 5.” Don’t do all five.

How does a take home exam work?

• The midterm will be placed in the Course Documents folder on November 30 at about 9:00 AM.  Due by midnight on December 1 (as December 1 becomes December 2, but that deadline is a soft one; don't sweat an extra few hours or so). 
• Type or write the exam. 
• Either way, email me a file or pdf or even jpeg of the written answers by the deadline
• 11- or 12-point font
• One-inch margins
• Double-spaced
• Please use your name is the name of the file you send me.  I’d be happiest if you named the file like this: Your name Exam 2 POLI 363 (so if it was my exam, it would be Newmann Exam 2 POLI 363)
• The exam is open notes (so you can use your notes, the book, the review sheet, and the PPT slides
• I do not expect any outside research on this at all
• Each question has a specific page number target.  You can go over the limit, not a problem, but don’t go too far over the limit. You don’t need to.
• I think two to three hours will be enough time for you to write the exam and do well. You can take more time of course, as much as you need. The point here is that I don't think you need to spend hours and hours.
• It might be helpful to read the questions, then review your notes, and the review sheet.  Maybe make an outline of the essay. And then start to write.
• As always, the review sheets should be very helpful. You can use the review sheets while you take the exam. It might be a good organizational tool. 
• Feel free to email me questions if you have them, but as usual, there are limits to how I can help you.

And, important:

• Sharing this exam with anyone outside the class is a violation of the VCU Honor Code
• Working with another student in the class or anyone else while you take this exam is a violation of the VCU Honor Code
• As with any take home, the plagiarism rules that exist for research papers apply here.  Your exams must be your written work. I will run this through the standard plagiarism programs as I do with all research papers

List of Terms:

*Bush 41 through Obama as retrenchment or maximalist presidents

Bush 41

Bush's Realism

Bush background

Post-Cold War national security environment

few threats

choice of where and when to intervene

Bush Foreign Policy:

Realism with idealist rhetoric?

*Iran-Iraq War

*US leans toward Iraq

*Tanker War

*USS Stark

*US shoots down Iranian air line

*The Gulf War:

*The Gulf as an idealist crusade against aggression

*Defending Saudi Arabia

*The New World Order

*The United Nations

*Multilateral coalition

*fighting aggression

upholding international law

*Air war

*Ground war

Iraq surrenders and the terms of its surrender

Must give up WMD

Inspections

New World Order? Bush Idealism? Or something else?

Other factors to consider:

1. Economic: OIL

2. Multilateralism?

Armed Forces participating

3. Realism:

*Why leave Saddam Hussein in power

*The breakup of Iraq?

*Iranian power

Somalia

Civil war and drought

Humanitarian Military Intervention

Clinton

*Clinton’s Idealism

Replacing the Truman Doctrine?

Clinton’s huge shift in focus of US foreign policy

Economics as priority

Liberal economics vs. nationalists/protectionist economics

Fighting the Democratic Party on trade issues

building world order, but through economics

NAFTA, FTAA, APEC, WTO

Lack of Foreign Policy Consensus

The Clinton Doctrine?

From Containment to Enlargement/Engagement: “En-En Strategy”

1. *Core Group of Liberal-Democracies

2. *Transitional states/Economic transition: Former Soviet-bloc states

3. Rogue states

4. Weapons of Mass Destruction

5. Big Emerging Markets

6. Human Rights and Human Rights Crises

7. Multilateralism

Clinton and Somalia

*Clinton support for humanitarian military intervention/peace operations

*UN/US vs. General Aidid (leader of Somali faction that challenged the UN and US)

*Outcome of October 3, 1993: Battle of Mogadishu

*Public Opinion after Somalia

Rwanda 1994

Viet Nam Syndrome and Somalia failures lead to inaction by Clinton administration

*Bosnia

ethnic cleansing

Kosovo 1999

The model:

US airpower

Local ground troops

NATO, not UN-sponsored operations

NATO peacekeepers; US troops on the ground for peacekeeping

*Clinton and the al-Qaeda threat

*USS Cole

US and China (from lectures and Christensen)

Threat or Opportunity or both?

*Christensen thesis: China is not a peer competitor

*its relative weakness compared to the US

*The US and China are not in a hegemon-challenger relationship right now

*Chinese elites are not likely to challenge the US because they benefit from a strong economic relationship with the US

*Debate in China: Did assertive foreign policy beginning in 2009, hurt China’s relationship with neighbors: backlash

*Debate in US: Does China want the US out of East Asia or does China want a greater role in an East Asian that includes the US?

*Xi Jinping and the Chinese Dream policy

*Deng Xiaoping’s reforms 1978

*The economic boom in China

*BRICs

*Chinese trade and interdependence with the US and the rest of East Asia

*Can China, even if just a regional power, coerce the US and East Asian nations over East Asian issues?

*In short, China does not have to be the equal of the US to challenge the US and its allies in East Asia

*Taiwan’s move to democracy

*How it complicated US policy

*Taiwan independence?

*Lee Teng-hui visa issue

No political reforms, but…

History suggests that economic reforms lead to calls for political reform

*Tiananmen Square

*Bush policy after Tiananmen Square: How Bush viewed China: Realism

Congressional pressure and Most Favored Nation policy

Clinton campaign policy: Idealism

*China as human rights problem

*China as BEM

Clinton administration arguments and outcome

Clinton sets deadline for China

Clinton decides not to link Chinese progress in human rights to trade with the US

Hypocrisy or Learning?

Clinton’s argument: trade sanctions will not change China, but trade might change China

*Bush and China as a strategic competitor

*Responsible Stakeholder” thesis (Robert Zoellick)

*Strategic and Economic Dialogue

*How North Korea pushes the US and China toward cooperation

*China’s Nine-Dash Line

*Competing claims in the Paracel and Spratly Islands (not individual islands, but who is arguing)

*Oil and trade routes through S. China Sea

*Obama Policy: The Pivot or Rebalance (important) (also below)

*Steinberg and “strategic reassurance”

Big Picture Again

Hegemonic Rival? Thucydides Trap?

Clinton: Engagement

Bush: competitor

Obama: Manage China’s rise by setting rules (like Zoellick’s responsible stakeholder)

Chinese Grand Strategy

Deng: Bide Time; low profile

Xi: “Chinese Dram”

China’s wealth

Belt and Road Initiative

Ideology

State Capitalism

Authoritarian Capitalism

Global Military Competitor?

Regional Military Competitor

*Nine Dash Line

Economic Interdependence

Bush 43

*Bush belief in primacy?

Initial Policy

China as strategic competitor

Hegemonic Realism

No peace operations or nation-building

Neoconservatives

Divisions within administration

*Hegemonists (Primacy)

*Neoconservatives

Unilateralism

The New Threat of AQ and Islamic Radicalism

*September 11

*Who was responsible?

*Al-Qaeda (AQ)

*Osama bin-Laden

Bin-Laden’s fatwas

*Clinton administration warnings to Bush 43 about AQ

*The elements of AQ’s ideology

Origins of al-Qaeda and Sunni Extremism (The big Chart)

AQ’s roots in Afghanistan in the 1980s

Taliban in Afghanistan

Religious schools around the Muslim world (madrassas) and their ideology

Why this is not mainstream Islam and is more dangerous for Muslims than anyone else

*AQ’s goals (why attack the US)

Bush Doctrine

*Choosing sides

*Pakistan’s role

*Afghanistan invasion and the difficulties

*Northern Alliance

*Fighting the Taliban in 2001 and still today

*Preemption if necessary

*Linkage of terrorism and WMD threat

*Axis of Evil

Multilateralism only when necessary

*Regime Change

*Idealism and the spread of liberal democracy

*Bush’s “Freedom Agenda”

The Iraq War

1. *Bush administration’s argument for invading Iraq

*Saddam Hussein will use WMD on the US

*Iraq will give WMD to terrorists

After the war begins US finds Iraq had no WMD

2. To plant the seed of democracy

*Bush administration ambitious plan to transform the Middle East (“Freedom Agenda”)

*Iraq becomes democracy, then Domino Theory

Outcome of the war

1. *Insurgency

2. *al-Qaeda in Iraq born

3. *Sectarian conflict: Sunni vs. Shi’ite vs. Kurds

4. *US bogged down in a war until 2011

5. Tipping the balance of power in the region in favor of Iran

6. US public opinion turns against the war

7. International opinion turns against the US

*US Counterinsurgency policy

*The surge 2007

*Awakening Councils

*David Petraeus

Obama Foreign Policy

*Obama as retrenching

*acceptance of multipolarity?

Rule-based international order

1. *Two US counterinsurgency wars

*Leaving Iraq

*Getting deeper into Afghanistan

*Obama’s belief Afghanistan was always the real front against AQAM

*increasing troop levels

2. Global war against radical Islam

Use of Drones

*al-Awlaki and AQAP

*Killing bin-Laden

3. Arab Uprising

Balancing US interests

Competing interests in the region

*Syrian Civil War

*Policy of non-intervention

The rise of ISIS

4. *The Pivot or Rebalancing (See China lecture for some of this)

Balance of power: US and India

Trans-Pacific Partnership: setting rules for trade in East Asia: US rules

Resurgent Russia

Putin Foreign Policy

Anger over NATO expansion

Putin’s political rule in Russia

Russian Hybrid Warfare

Georgia 2008

*Ukraine 2014

Ukraine tilts to EU

Then reverses; Yanukovych overthrown

Russia annexes Crimea; spurs revolts in eastern provinces

“Little Green Men” and hybrid warfare

*Syrian Civil War

UK referendum

*Russian hacking of Democratic Party

*The controversy with Trump campaign and Russia

Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller

*Helsinki Summit: Trump sides with Putin over US Intelligence

Trump Foreign Policy

The Fact Problem

Trump Doctrine? America First

*Rejection of rules-based international order and US leadership

Rejection of US commitments to international institutions

Rejection of long-term commitments and restraint on US actions

*Alliances are obsolete

*Free trade hurts the US

*Bilateral deals with allies, rivals, enemies (transactional)

*Who benefits from US unwillingness to lead? (China)

*Zero-Sum view of the world

*Trump Praise for dictators

*Congratulations to Xi Jinping for becoming President for life

*Internal Battle in administration

*Traditional Republicans (Tillerson, Mattis, McMaster, Kelly) vs. Trump

*All cabinet officers who disagree eventually resign

*Spokes of the wheel decision making system

*Foreign Policy by tweet

Tradition vs Trump

1. *US Leadership vs. America First

2. *Free Trade vs. Nationalism/Protectionism

*Rejection of NAFTA

*Rejection of TPP

*Rejection of Post-WW II Liberalism

3. *Alliances vs. Paying the US for Defense

*NATO as obsolete

Criticism of US traditional allies

4. *Russia as Rival vs. Russia as Friend

2016 Russian interference as a “hoax”

Trump and Putin at Helsinki

5. *China as security rival and economic opportunity vs. China as economic rival

*China and US manufacturing decline

*Or is technology the real problem in US manufacturing

*Trade deficit and Trump tariffs on China

*Questions One-China policy (without interagency review)

6. Counterterrorism

*ISIS losing territory: continuity from Obama policy

Withdrawal from Kurdish Zones

Fate of US Kurdish allies

Russia, Iran, Syria gains

7. Proliferation

*Iran: Obama and JCPOA

*Trump withdraws from JCPOA

*Return to sanctions

North Korea

*Obama: sanctions and strategic patience

*North Korean ICBM capability

*Trump negotiations (concessions)

*Trump-Kim Summits: another Bromance

Middle East Success: Peace Deals

Iranian threat

Examples of Dilemmas of Bilateral Deals: Strategic Coherence?