Jason Merrick
Modeling Oil Spills

Abstract. Is oil transportation risk reduced by lowering wind restrictions from 45 to 35 knots at Hinchinbrook Entrance for laden oil tankers departing Valdez, Alaska? Should the International Safety Management (ISM) code be implemented fleet-wide for the Washington State Ferries in Seattle, or does it make more sense to invest in additional life craft? Can ferry service in San Francisco Bay be expanded in a safe manner to relieve high way congestion? These risk management questions were raised in a series of projects spanning a time frame of more than 10 years. How should we model these systems? This talks discusses how we decomposed the problem, how we modeled each piece, and how we combined the pieces to answers these critical questions.